Welcome back to NFL Picks and Preview. After another one week hiatus, I have returned again, hopefully for good this time (honestly, no promises). I’ll quick recap my last couple weeks and dig into Week 15.
Last Week:
Week 13 Pick ‘Em: 10-6
Week 14 Pick ‘Em: 8-8
Week 13 Spread: 9-7
Season:
Pick ‘Em: 127-81
Spread: 42-38-5
Week 13 Bonus Bets:
-IND v JAX — Under — W
-LAR v ARZ — Over — W
Bonus bets are as up and down as your favorite Disney World rollercoaster but being 8-6 isn’t the worst thing. I’ll take what I can get.
DEN@IND
Here we are, we finally made it. The last installment of Thursday Night Football in 2017 and boy, did the NFL really set us up with a doozy. Both teams rank in the bottom seven in terms of points per game among the NFL, and bottom nine in scoring defense per game. Like I said before, a real doozy for the Thursday night finale this season. I have a little more faith in Denver here, as their defense got the shutout against the Jets last week.
If Madden predicted it, it has to be true right?
Pick ‘Em: Denver Broncos
Spread: Denver Broncos (-2.5)
CHI@DET
Thursday Night Football wrapping up means the return of Saturday games.
Ps. Can the Bears stop saying “da”. It’s not 1985 anymore.
2017’s first regular-season Saturday game picks up right where Thursday Night Football left off with another barn-burner. Chicago appears to be hitting their stride after blowing out Cincinnati last week, and narrowly losing to San Francisco the week before that. Detroit has been up and down in recent weeks, so a coin flip could probably predict this game better than I could (but I’m picking Chicago).
Pick ‘Em: Chicago Bears
Spread: Chicago Bears (+5.5)
LAC@KC
Speaking of teams hitting their strides, the Chargers have won four in-a-row. With the Chiefs losing four of their last five, the AFC West race has suddenly heated up with these two 7-6 teams. Eric Berry would have owned this game and shut down Phillip Rivers but he’s sitting on IR. I don’t see Kansas City’s pass rush or secondary slowing down Phillip Rivers. Chargers in a close one.
Pick ‘Em: Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Los Angeles Chargers (-1)
GB@CAR
After 8 weeks of agony, he has returned. Aaron Rodgers is healthy and back starting for the Packers.
Even more intriguing, he’s not listed on the injury report, meaning he’s 100% healthy. Will I still shudder in fear when he takes his first hit on Sunday? Yes, but I’m still pumped for the king of the north to return. That being said, they have a tough task ahead going to Carolina to keep their playoff hopes alive. But, do you think I’m gonna pick against the GOAT?
Pick ‘Em: Green Bay Packers
Spread: Green Bay Packers (+3)
MIA@BUF
Miami has a nice little two-game win streak going including an impressive home win against New England on Monday night. Now they travel to the north where Buffalo is still fighting for their playoff lives. The Bills got an ugly, snow-filled win without Tyrod Taylor last week, and it was a high-quality snow game. If you don’t love a good snow game you’re not a true football fan.
I’ll give Buffalo the home advantage this week, but the result could be different when they meet in the regular season-finale in two weeks.
Pick ‘Em: Buffalo Bills
Spread: Miami Dolphins (+3.5)
BAL@CLE
As if not having a win was bad enough, Browns fans had their hearts ripped out again last week after blowing a fourth-quarter lead, and then eventually losing the game in overtime to Green Bay last week.
Now they’ll get right back on the horse against Baltimore, who is still in the crowded AFC wildcard picture. The Ravens put up quite the fight in Pittsburgh on Sunday night, and I expect the same energy in Cleveland this weekend.
Pick ‘Em: Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Baltimore Ravens (-7)
CIN@MIN
Getting blown out in Chicago does not bode well for Cincinnati as they travel to Minnesota to play the NFC North leading Vikings. If the Bears defense held the Bengals to seven points last week, imagine what the Vikings will be capable of. Are you picturing a shutout? I am. That won’t stop Cincinnati’s front seven from flying around the field trying to dish out concussions. They’re easily the dirtiest players in the game, a la Ric Flair.
Pick ‘Em: Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Minnesota Vikings (-10.5)
NYJ@NO
The New York Jets had a slim chance to win this game, but with their starting quarterback Josh McCown being placed on IR with a broken hand, their chances are nearly zero. New Orleans is coming off of a mini-bye, having 10 days of rest after their Thursday night loss to Atlanta. That means rookie sensation Alvin Kamara has recovered from his concussion, which ironically will give the Jets a major headache.
Pick ‘Em: New Orleans Saints
Spread: New Orleans Saints (-15.5)
PHI@NYG
Carson Wentz’ ACL is officially torn along with the hearts of Philadelphia fans. For pride’s sake, it would be best for New York to show up and give their best effort this game. A 61-yard field goal won the game for the Eagles the last time these two teams met, and I’m sure the Giants haven’t forgotten about that, but just in case….
While I think Philadelphia pulls off the win, it’ll be another close affair.
Pick ‘Em: Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: New York Giants (+7.5)
ARZ@WSH
Both Arizona and Washington are coming in to this game short-handed with players on both sides of the ball injured for both teams. Neither team is in playoff contention, so this game has NFL draft order implications, and that’s about it. Washington at home is the only slight advantage I give them, don’t expect too many points in this one.
Pick ‘Em: Washington Redskins
Spread: Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)
HOU@JAX
With a win, Jacksonville clinches their first playoff birth in a decade. That’s some heavy stakes for a team that was bad for that long. I never thought I’d see the day, but the Jaguars are the real deal this season with wins over Pittsburgh, Los Angeles (Chargers), and Seattle. Leonard Fournette had 100 yards in his pro debut week one against Houston, expect more of the same this time around. Just hope that the Jaguar fans in attendance don’t throw things at Jadaveon Clowney…
Pick ‘Em: Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars (-11)
LAR@SEA
The Rams traveling to Seattle will have the most impact on the NFC playoff picture this week, regardless of outcome. Playing in Seattle is tough business, just ask the Eagles. Los Angeles hasn’t had a win against a quality road opponent since taking care of business in Jacksonville week six. They’re looking to send a message in Seattle this weekend, and they will.
Pick ‘Em: Los Angeles Rams
Spread: Los Angeles Rams (+2.5)
NE@PIT
While Los Angeles and Seattle has the biggest impact on the NFC playoff picture, this game has the biggest impact on the AFC playoffs in terms of home-field advantage. That’s gonna be a big deal for Pittsburgh who has notoriously sputtered against New England in the AFC Championship game. The Steelers need this one, bad. They’ll use the extra motivation from Ryan Shazier to bring this one home.
Pick ‘Em: Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)
TEN@SF
San Francisco would love nothing more than to make the road to the playoffs difficult for Marcus Mariota and the Titans. Both teams are stringing together wins late in the season, but it’s too late for the 49ers. Tennessee should bounce back from an ugly loss last week at Arizona and firmly plant themselves in the AFC playoff picture.
Pick ‘Em: Tennessee Titans
Spread: Tennessee Titans (+1.5)
DAL@OAK
The Sunday night-cap features two teams fighting for their playoff lives. Both teams have struggled against quality opponents so this is the perfect late-season matchup to gauge where both teams stand. With the AFC playoff picture more open than the NFC, this game should mean more for Oakland, meaning they’ll get the win.
Pick ‘Em: Oakland Raiders
Spread: Oakland Raiders (+3)
ATL@TB
Three one-possession losses in a row is a tough pill to swallow for Tampa Bay, especially with Atlanta winning four of their last five and entering this game with 10 days of rest. It’ll be a tough mountain for Tampa Bay to climb, and I see them coming up short. Packer fans should be rooting for the Bucs if they want an easier path to the playoffs, but I don’t see it happening.
Pick ‘Em: Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Atlanta Falcons (-6)
Bonus Bets:
– I’ll keep it short and sweet this week. Cincinnati @ Minnesota, Under 42.
-New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints, Under 47.
View From The Bench 